慶應義塾大学 経済学部 PEARL入試 志望理由書 提出例(廣瀬 康生先生ゼミ向け)
Dr. Yasuo Hirose
Department of Economics, Microeconomics
Dear Professor Hirose,
I am writing this letter to explain my motivation behind application for Department of Economics at Keio University, specializing in Micro Econometrics and related studies. As we are exposed to more information than ever, the need for us to truly understand and process them only get bigger. In the midst of chaos, Japan has been a subject of study, I have read a number of your published work which I was very intrigued by. I hope I am able to elaborate on area of studies that can be a research subject in your seminar, and I would be more than grateful if you could kindly give this a consideration.
This year, Shinzo Abe has become the longest-serving prime minister in Japan’s history. Having taken office after two decades of successive Japanese leaders playing dramatic and disappearing, he has delivered a remarkable period of stability. In particular, his signature economic strategy “Abenomics” has produced a number of successes. In addition to experiencing GDP growth, Japan’s persistent deflation seems to have come to an end, and there have been marked increases in women’s labor-force participation. While economic growth is expected to remain solid, some downside risks exist. The planned consumption tax increase in 2019 could hinder near-term growth momentum. With weaker global growth and heightened uncertainty from trade to geopolitical tensions, could also undermine growth, trigger yen appreciation and equity market shocks, and renew deflationary risks.
In the time of steady deflation, how did the monetary policies develop?
Review monetary policy developments in Japan from the late 19th century to the early 21st century
Historically, the goals of monetary policy have been defined based on the goals of the nation as a whole. On the long path to become an industrialized country in late 19th century, the ultimate goal of monetary policy was to provide money for development. However, especially during the big wars with Japan’s main trading partners in the 1930s-1940s, monetary policy was overwhelmed by war finance and resulted in rampant inflation. In the post war high-growth period, once Japan had achieved industrialization and become one of the leading economic powers, the primary goal shifted from development to stability. The main policy instrument was interest-rate regulation accompanied by window guidance and the reserve/deposit ratio. In fact i has kept the deflation rate at lower than 2% meeting BOJ’s prediction in the last years.
It is expected, the BOJ will maintain its current approach at least until Abe leaves office. The question is what happens after that. With the BOJ having become such a big presence in bond and equity markets owing such large portion of Japanese companies stocks, it could have far-reaching implications across the global economy. Unless we see a dramatic improvement in the government’s debt, which is highly unlikely, bond prices and even bigger economic growth would be in for a tough time. With international economic dependence, understanding policy histories and concepts tackling newly arising issues is extremely important. I assume this can be an addition to a number of researches conducted in your seminar and I would love to take part. Thank you very much for taking the time to read and I look forward to hearing from you soon on this matter.
Thank you and best regards,
*An Estimated DSGE Model with a Deflation Steady State, Yasuo Hirose, Macroeconomic Dynamics （Cambridge University Press) forthcoming 2018年09月