3４.慶應SFC 総合政策学部 和田龍磨 教授
- Professor Tatsuma Wada
Introduction of the discussion
What are the factors that affect the price of crude oil?
The first factor is said to be crude oil inventory. The amount of inventory can be roughly calculated by “supply (production amount + imported amount)-demand (consumption amount-exported amount)”.
However, as the economy becomes more active, the production rate of the refinery plant for will rise for production petrochemical products, petroleum products such as fuel, etc, and demand for crude oil will be strong. As a result, the inventory of crude oil decreases and prices tend to increase.
Since 2011, the oil market has become oversupplied due to continued increases in crude oil production in non-OPEC oil-producing countries such as Russia and Brazil, and steady production of US shale oil which has continued to expand rapidly, while demand for oil in China and other emerging countries has stagnated.
Even as crude oil prices continue to fall, OPEC, which has been responsible for regulating the supply of crude oil, has not reduced crude oil production. It can be said that this is to secure market share against non-OPEC oil-producing countries that continue to expand production.
Finding the problem
Then, what impact will fluctuations in crude oil prices have on the economy?
In Japan, the dependence on oil has declined due to progress in energy conservation and alternative energy introduction since the second oil shock, and the ratio of crude oil imports to total imports has remained stable at around 15%.
However, due to the rapid increase in imports due to the rise in crude oil prices, it has exceeded 20% since 2005 and has risen to about 23% in 2007, an increase of about 9 trillion yen compared to 2000.
To reduce the impact on oil price fluctuations, it is necessary to turn to energy policies such as alternative energy development.
Therefore, I would like to study energy conservation policies and alternative energy introduction policies that are necessary to reduce the economic impact of crude oil prices.
Examining the conclusion
By studying with Professor Tatsuma Wada, who is researching international finance theory and macroeconomics, I am sure that I could obtain various perspectives regarding my research and it would open up new horizons for me.
Therefore, I believe that Keio University’s Faculty of Policy Management is the most suitable place for pursuing my research and social contributions, and I am aspiring to enter your school and study in your laboratory.