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年中無休の家庭教師 毎日学習会

慶應義塾大学SFC 総合政策学部 英語 2012年 大問一 本文対訳


■ 第1段落
1:1 21世紀には,権力の二大移行が起こりつつある。
1:1 There are two big power shifts going on in the 21st century.
1:2 One is among countries, from West to East, and the other is from governments to nongovernmental actors, regardless of whether it is East or West.

■ 第2段落
2:1 I call the first of these shifts “power transition” and the second,”power diffusion.”
2:2 The issue of power transition is sometimes called the rise of Asia, but it should more properly be called the recovery of Asia.
2:3 もし1750年に世界を見れば,アジアは世界の人口の半数以上を擁し,世界の産物の半数以上が出てくるのを目にしたことだろう。
2:3 If one looked at the world in 1750, one would see that Asia had more than half of the world’s population, and represented more than half of the world’s products.
2:4 1900年には,アジアは依然として世界の人口の半数以上を擁していたが,世界の産物のわずか20%まで衰退してしまった。
2:4 By 1900, Asia still had more than half of the world’s population, [1](1. but 2. so 3. for) it had declined to only 20 percent of the world’s products.
2:5 これまで見てきたのは,そして21世紀に目にすることになるのは,アジアが正常な割合まで回復し,世界の半数以上の人口と世界の半数以上の産物を手にするようになることなのである。
2:5 What we have been seeing, and what we will see in the 21st century, is the recovery of Asia to its normal proportions, with more than half of the world’s population and more than half of the world’s products.
2:6 もちろん,これが始まったのは1868年の明治維新後の日本からであり,それに規模の小さい国ではあるが朝鮮,シンガポール,マレーシアなどが続いた。
2:6 This started, of course, with Japan after the Meiji Restoration in 1868, and it [2](1. coincided 2. worked 3. continued) with smaller countries like Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, and so forth.
2:7 Now the trend has spread to China, but it is also going to include India.
2:8 インドは今や年8〜9%の成長率である。
2:8 India now has growth rates of 8 to 9 percent a year.
2:9 During the course of the century, we should [3](1. see 2. understand 3. recognize) Asia as a whole recovering to about what one would think would be normal proportions.
2:10 そしてそれが権力移行である。
2:10 And that is power transition.

■ 第3段落
3:1 Let me say a word about what I mean by power diffusion.
3:2 それは技術とりわけ情報技術が国際問題に参加する費用にどう影響しているのかという観点から理解するのが最もよい。
3:2 That is best understood in terms of the way technologies, and particularly information technologies, are [4](1. increasing 2. sustaining 3. affecting) the costs of participating in international affairs.
3:3 コンピュータの能力の価格は1970年から2000年までに1000分の1に減少した。
3:3 The price of computing power declined a thousand-fold from 1970 to 2000.
3:4 これは異常な数字であり,あまりにも大きいので,それがどういうことなのかをつかむのは難しい。
3:4 That is an extraordinary number, so big that it is hard to know what it means.
3:5 これを考える最善策は,もし自動車の価格がコンピュータの能力の価格と同じくらい急速に下落していたら,今日では自動車を,例えば,1万円で買うことができることになってしまうということだ。
3:5 The best way to think of this would be that if the price of an automobile had declined as rapidly as the price of computing power, you should be able to buy an automobile today, for, lets say, 10,000 yen.
3:6 それはまさに異常な変化である。
3:6 It is [5](1. just 2. hardly 3. nonetheless) an extraordinary change.
3:7 When the price of something declines that much, it removes the barriers to entry.
3:8 Now others can do what previously was [6](1. prepared 2. reserved 3. preserved) for governments or big corporations.
3:9 もし1970年に東京からニューヨーク,ロンドン,ヨハネスバーグまで瞬時に通信したければできることはできた。
3:9 If you wanted to communicate instantaneously from Tokyo to New York to London to Johannesburg in 1970, you could do that.
3:10Technologically you could do it, but it was very, very expensive.
3:11 [7](1. Still 2. Now 3. However), anybody can do it and it is virtually free.
3:12 スカイプがあれば,料金は要らない。
3:12 If you have Skype, it is free.

■ 第4段落
4:1 だからこれは,以前はきわめて大きな組織,例えば政府や会社などに制限されていたものが,今は誰にでも利用可能だということなのである。
4:1 So that means that things that were previously restricted to very large organizations like governments or corporations are now [8](1. meaningful 2. useless . available) to anyone.
4:2 そしてこれは世界政治に有意義な影響を及ぼす。
4:2 And this has a significant impact on world politics.
4:3 だからといって,政府が取って代わられているとか,国民国家が時代遅れになるということではない。
4:3 It does not mean that governments are being replaced or that the nation-state is obsolete.
4:4 それはむしろ,政府が活動する舞台には,今では多くの小規模な行為者があふれているということなのだ。
4:4 What it [9](1. does 2. does not . could not) mean is that the stage on which governments act is now crowded with many more, smaller actors.
4:5 それら小規模の行為者の中には,例えばオックスファム・インターナショナルという,貧困を減らそうと努める非営利組織のようなよいものもあれば,例えばアルカイダという,明らかに人々の殺害を狙う悪いものもある。
4:5 Some of those smaller actors are good―lets take Oxfam International, an NPO which serves to relieve poverty―and some of them are bad―lets take Al Qaeda, which is obviously trying to kill people.
4:6 しかし,要点は,それは新種の国際政治だということであり,これをどう考えればよいかを私たちはまだしっかり受け止めていない。
4:6 But the main point is that it is a new type of international politics and we have [10](1. already 2. often 3. not yet) come to terms with how to think about this.
4:7 だから,例えば,情報技術がこれほど強力で重要となっている時代にあっては,誰の軍隊が勝つかだけでなく,誰の「物語」が勝つかなのだということが,よくあるといってよいと,私たちは知っておく必要がある。
4:7 So, for example, we need to realize that in an age in which information technology is so powerful and important, it may often be the case that it is not only whose army wins, but whose story wins.
4:8 The ability to tell an effective story is [11](1. persuasive 2. crucial 3. risky).

■ 第5段落
5:1 テロの問題を考えるなら,テロリストには,軍事力はほんのわずかしかないが,彼らは多くの「ソフトパワー」をもっている。人々を引きつけ説得する力である。
5:1 If you think of the problem of terrorism, terrorists have very little military power, but they have a lot of “soft power”―the ability to attract and persuade people.
5:2 それで,ビン=ラディンは,ワールドトレードセンターに飛び込んだ人々の頭に銃を突きつけたわけではなかった。
5:2 [12](1. So 2. Nonetheless 3. However), Bin Laden did not point a gun at the head of the people who flew into the World Trade Center.
5:3 He did not pay them.
5:4 He attracted them by his narrative of “Islam under threat” and the need to purify Islam.
5:5 それが興味深いのは,それはつまり,こうしたことに対処しようとすると,私たちが誤って,単に軍事力あるいは経済力だけでこれを解決できると考えるかもしれないということになるからである。
5:5 That is interesting because it means that as we then try to [13(1. come up 2. get away 3. cope) with this, we may make the mistake of thinking that we can solve this by military or economic power alone.
5:6 もしも力というものが自分の望む結果を手に入れる能力のことであるなら,強制や脅迫,いわば「ムチ」によってそうすることもできるだろう。
5:6 If power means the ability to get the outcomes you want, you could do this through coercion, threats, so-called “sticks.”
5:7 「ニンジン」という報酬によってそうすることもできるだろう。
5:7 You could do it with payments you might call [14](1. “lemons.” 2. “whips.” 3. “carrots”.)
5:8 あるいは誘惑と説得によってそうすることもできるだろう。
5:8 Or you could do it with attraction and persuasion.
5:9 また,情報時代にあっては,ソフトパワーの役割がもつ重要性は高まっている。
5:9 And in an information age, the role of soft power is increasing in its importance.
5:10 Now that means that what we need is a new way of thinking about power.
5:11高名な英国の歴史学者A. J. P.テイラーは,19世紀のヨーロッパ支配権を巡る闘争に関する書物を著した人物であるが,彼は大国を戦争で勝てる国であると定義した。
5:11 The famous British historian A.J.P. Taylor, who wrote a book about the struggle for mastery of Europe in the 19th century, defined a great power as a country that was able to prevail in war.
5:12 しかし,21世紀にあっては,力とは何なのかに関するそうした限定的な考え方を乗り越えていかなければならないし,それを,はるかに3次元的なものであり,軍事力のみならず経済力もソフトパワーも含まれているものだと見なければならない。
5:12 But we have to [15](1. put up with 2. go beyond 3. cling to) that limited way of thinking about what power means in the 21st century, and see it as much more three-dimensional, as including not only military power but also economic power and also soft power.

■ 第6段落
6:1 It is very important to have accurate perceptions about the transition of power.
6:2 なぜなら,人々が権力について心配しすぎると,彼らは過剰反応したり,危険な戦略に付き従ったりしかねないからである。
6:2 And the reason is that when people are too worried about power, they may overreact or follow strategies that are [16](1. relevant 2. meaningful 3. dangerous).
6:3 When you look back in history, there is the famous case of the Peloponnesian War, in which the Greek city-state system tore itself apart.
6:4 トゥキディデスという古代ギリシアの歴史家は,この戦争の理由はアテネの力の台頭と,それがスパルタに生み出した恐怖であったと述べた。
6:4 Thucydides, the ancient Greek historian, said the reason for this war was the rise in the power of Athens and the fear it created in Sparta.
6:5 [17](1. Contrarily 2. Similarly 3. Paradoxically), if you look at World War I, which destroyed the centrality of the European state system in the world, it is often said it was caused by the rise in power of Germany and the fear that it created in Britain.

■ 第7段落
7:1 It is equally important not to be too fearful of the diffusion of power.
7:2 What we are seeing is that both China and the United States, and of course Japan and Europe and others, will be facing a new set of transnational challenges, including climate change, transnational terrorism, cyber insecurity, and pandemics.
7:3 これらのすべての問題は,将来増大していくであろうが,それらには協調が求められる。
7:3 All these issues, which are going to be increasing in the future, are going to require cooperation.
7:4 どの一国も単独では解決できない。
7:4 They cannot be solved by any one country alone.
7:5 Many of these new transnational issues that we face are areas where we have to get away from just thinking about power over others and think about power [18](1. with 2. without 3. under) others.

■ 第8段落
8:1 The American president Franklin Roosevelt at the time of the Great Depression said, “We have nothing to fear but fear itself.”
8:2 ことによると21世紀の方に目を向けるとき,最も厄介なことの一つは,恐怖そのものなのだと言わなくてはいけないのかもしれない。
8:2 Perhaps as we turn to the 21st century, we should say one of the most worrisome things is fear itself.
8:3 If we can keep a balanced [19](1. assembly 2. assortment 3. assessment) of the overall distribution of power, and figure out ways to deal with these common challenges that we face―we, meaning the United States, Japan, China, Europe and others we can indeed have a [20](1. win-win 2. win-lose 3. lose-lose) situation.

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